The Southern Highlands Intermodal --- Demand Forecasts

 

 

The underlying demand for the Southern highlands intermodal will be driven by developments in four trade areas:

• The level of container trade passing through Port Botany and Port Kembla international container ports.

• The increase in non-bulk freight demand along the main interstate Sydney Melbourne and Moss Vale/Port Kembla freight paths.

• The level of the vehicle imports directed to the Southern Highlands.

• The degree of success in attracting export industries.

 

The level of future port-related intermodal traffic will depend not only on the scale of import/export container volumes, but also on the share of rail in the transport of these containers. A number of state governments have set rail mode share targets for port related cargo movements – for NSW the target is 40%.

 

INTERMODAL TOTAL DEMAND FOR IMPORT/EXPORT 2005-2020

This dramatic growth is being driven by globalization and world economic growth which is forecast to remain constant over the next 20 years.

 

Container growth is forecast to be 6.71% annually over the next five years.

 

In estimating future intermodal terminal demand, the DOTARS study has assumed that rail volumes will increase in accordance with ‘reform’ forecasts of the Australasian Railway Association (ARA) until 2014, and will grow in line with the total market growth from then through to 2020.

 

Similarly, it is assumed that state targets, such as the NSW target of 40 percent of port containers on rail, for port- related containers, will be met.

 

According to the Sea Freight Council of NSW study, rail transport accounted for only 25-27% of the overall movement of containers in 2004 so there is a considerable way to go to achieve the NSW target.

 

 

Source: Meyrick Study estimates

The above table indicates that there will be a significant shortfall in terminal capacity in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane by 2020.

 

It should be stressed that these estimates should be regarded as indicative only; the limited response of major players to the study survey indicates there is scope for further work in this area.

 

 

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